Billy Wagner‘s path to the Major Leagues could only be described as improbable. Now, as the final ballots for the 2024 Hall of Fame class are being tallied, his path to Cooperstown is looking probable.
The ninth time may be the charm for Wagner, a former closer for the Mets, Astros, Phillies, Red Sox and Braves, though it’s not an open-and-shut case. Wagner will need to reach a 75% threshold to be admitted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. According to Ryan Thibodaux’s tracker, Wagner has received a little more than 78% of the votes as of Monday. But with about 50.5% of the ballots still unknown, the pitcher once called “Billy the Kid” will need to be on another 70% of remaining ballots.
There is an argument to be made for inducting Wagner. His 422 saves are the sixth-most all-time, and the second-most for a left-handed reliever, only two behind another John Franco, another former Mets closer. He’s one of only eight pitchers to have converted 400 or more career saves.
Wagner posted a 2.31 era over 903 career innings, which is the second-lowest mark in the modern era for pitchers with at least 900 innings. He’s not far behind a pitcher who is considered to be the greatest closer of all time, Mariano Rivera (2.21 career ERA).
To be clear, Wagner was no Mo. There has never been a closer like Rivera, whose 652-save mark may never be eclipsed. Rivera is remembered not just for his regular season numbers, but for his postseason dominance, going 8-1 with a 0.70 postseason ERA in 96 appearances (141 innings).
Wagner pitched in only 14 playoff games and saved three of them. But that doesn’t take away any of his other credentials. His dominance throughout 16 seasons should be enough to earn him a spot in Cooperstown.
Only eight relievers have ever been elected to the Hall of Fame, including Dennis Eckersley, who spent half of his career starting and half of it pitching out of the bullpen. A low number of innings pitched affects a pitcher’s career WAR.
Rivera threw 1,283 2/3 innings. Trevor Hoffman saved 601 games in 1089 1/3 innings pitched. Wagner would be the first reliever to get into the Hall of Fame having pitched fewer than 1,000 innings. That could potentially set a new threshold for relievers, one that many voters want to avoid setting.
But make no mistake, his value was high. Wagner’s 187 ERA+ means he was 87% better than average at the time he played. No other pitcher with more than 900 innings thrown has struck out more than 33% hitters faced like Wagner. He touched 100 MPH with regularity.
Now, nearly every team has a hard-throwing strikeout machine in the back of the bullpen. Wagner helped usher in that trend.
He was undersized at only 5-foot-10, which is part of the reason he wasn’t scouted much until his junior year of college. He was able to harness his lower-body strength for power because of his excellent mechanics. Though he also threw a slider, the fastball was his calling card. During an era of steroid-fueled hitting sprees, Wagner could always cool off the hottest and hardest hitters in the game.
His childhood was the stuff of lore. Wagner grew up in poverty in rural Virginia, leaving a broken home to live with his aunt, uncle and cousins when he was a teenager. A natural right-hander, he broke his right arm twice as a kid and learned to throw with his left. He was behind in school but the administrators had to let him move up to high school with the other kids his age because he threw a baseball so hard there was concern that he would hurt younger, less-developed kids.
Wagner went to Division III Ferrum College to play football, but the football coach convinced him to stick with baseball. The rest is history.
If history has shown us anything, it’s that Wagner has continually defied odds. But next year is his final year on the ballot, so while the odds are in his favor now, that could change and time could run out.
Wagner can’t go back and undo the injuries that limited his innings at times throughout his career. He can’t go back and undo the pitch he threw to So Taguchi that scored two runs in the 2006 NLCS. All he can do now is hope that enough voters recognized his body of work and the precedents that he helped set, and that if they didn’t this year, they will next.
